Marriage Of (In)Conveniece

Syed Ali Safvi

With elections round the cornor, old foes Congress and National Conference (NC) are likely to leave bitter memories behind and join hands for the upcoming Assembly elections. In near six-year of Coalition government, PDP and Congress did not share healthy relations and the leadership of both the parties were often seen at loggerheads with each other on issues ranging from extension of Yatra period to transfer of Senior Superintendents of Police (SSPs). The marriage of inconvenience finally broke up with PDP withdrawing its support to Congress-led coalition government, over the controversial forestland 'transfer' issue. The issue triggred a major political crisis and paved the way for yet another spell of Governor's rule in the State -for the fifth time since 1977.

Governor's rule was imposed for the first time in March 1977 (three months), then in March 6, 1986 (sixmonths), again in Jan 1990 (six months) - followed by President's rule, which lasted till Oct 1996. The Governor's rule was imposed for the fourth time on Oct 17, 2002 (15 days). And now another date has been added to the list, July 11, 2008.

President of Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC) and Union minister, Prof Saifuddin Soz has to shoulder a huge responsibility: to revive the fortunes of Congress in the State. The political pundits believe that the row over forestland trasfer has not only improved the prospects of NC in the upcoming Assembly elections, but has also given the party a major issue against PDP (and Congress) which it will take full advantage of.

Ahead of elections, Prof Soz has some 'lucrative' plans in his kitty. He has already given an impression that his party is willing to forge ties with NC. Even the stalwarts in NC camp have not ruled out the possibility of pre or post-poll alliance with Congress. If at all such an alliance is formed, it would have a potential to spell doom for PDP. The PDP leadership will be trying their best to discard such possibility. PDP president Mehbooba Mufti's (only PDP MP) decision to extend support to United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government could well be termed as an outcome of such apprehension. The party has already snapped ties with Congress (though, interestingly, not at the center), however, it can not afford to snap ties with Congress altogether, because such an audacious attempt can jeopardise the party's prospects in the State beyond repair.

Former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad's differences and not-so-good relationship with PDP leadership is well kown. On the contrary, Azad is much closer to NC leadership. He shares a very good relation with NC patron. It is said that Azad had preferred a tie-up with NC, but he was reined in by Congress (I) president 'on more than one occasion'. If Azad had tense relationship with PDP, Prof Soz, according to insiders, does not get along well with some of his own party members. Prof Soz has bitter relationships with senior party members, Ghulam Rasool Kar and Abdul Gani Vakeel. On the other hand, NC bigwigs will be keen to come closer to Congress. Though, they will not admit it publicly, but they too have hinted a tit.

Ever since forestland transfer issue hogged the headlines, NC has barely castigated Congress. Instead, it has, not surprisingly though, fired verbal salvo at PDP. NC too does not want to spoil relations with the central governmnet. The party is most likely toextend support to UPA governmnet. Like father like son. Omar Abdullah is attempting to establish harmonious relationship with the Congress regime at the center, as his father did in late 1986 when he forged analliance with the Congress party at the center. The former NC leader and now the JKPCC president has some good old colleagues in NC and he would be looking forward to win their affection and support.

The Congress and NC have forged alliance in the past, but every timethey have ended on a bitter note. On November 13, 1974 Sheikh Abdullah and Indira Gandhi signed the Kashmir Accord (Beg-Parthasarthy Accord). On February 25, 1975 Sheikh Abdullah took over as the chief ministerof the State with Congress' support, a day after NC leaders reierated that J&K's accession to India was final. The allaiance, however, lasted only for 2 years and 21 days. On 16 March, 1977 Congress withdrew support to NC and the next day assembly was dissolved and Governor's rule imposed. On July 2, 1984 Ghulam Mohammad Shah, with Congress' support toppled NC government and became the chief minister. This further strained the relations between NC and Congress. Shah formed National Conference (Khalida) which was later (in May, 1985) renamed as Awami National Conference (ANC). However, on March 7, 1986 G.M. Shah was dismissedand once again Governor's rule was imposed.

On November 07, 1986 the two estranged parties again came together andformed a coalition government following Rajiv-Farooq accord. In 1977 and 1983 elections the main contest was between Congress and NC, but in 1987 Assembly elections both the parties had forged an alliance and were fighting on the same side. On March 25, 1987 NC-Congress coalition government was formed.

The stage is set for NC and Congress to bury the hatchet and join hands. Though the NC and Congress leadership have not outrightly rejected the possibility of an alliance, but they have not endorsed it also. Will they, won't they - that's the big question. Nonetheless, we have kept our fingers crossed.