Syed Ali Safvi
Protests over land transfer have snowballed into public uprising, and with People's Democratic Party (PDP) pulling out from the coalition government it has already trigerred a major political cricis in the State. It is one of those issues which has united the Kashmiris, irrespective of the political divide. There is no denying the fact that the issue will have a gargantaun impact on the forthcoming assembly elections. The protests are reminiscent of the protests witnessed in early-90s when people would throng the streets and the Valley reverberated with anti-India, pro-freedom and pro-Pakistan slogans. All the claims of New Delhi viz-a-viz the situation in Kashmir have been given a fitting reply by the furious mobs who hoisted green flags atop the Clock Tower in the heart of Srinagar city. The changed mood of protestors has already discounted the theory that the situation in Kashmir is limping towards normalcy, as has been claimed ad-nauseum by New Delhi. The situation on ground clearly reveals that New Delhi has failed to win over the hearts and minds of Kashmiris.
Using ruthless force against the peaceful protestors has become a usual phenomenon in the strife-torn and conflict-ridden vale of Kashmir. This time around too police and para-military forces have resorted to extreme measures to quill the protestors, but so far they have failed miserably. They have not been able to put any break on the protests which have been going on incessantly ever since people came to know about the clandestine land diversion decision.
Under pressure, the State governmnet has revoked the order of land transfer. Moreover, vote bank politics has divided the State on regional and religious lines. The decision has, not surprisingly though, angered BJP in Jammu who were demanding the status quo on the issue. With elections round the corner, the decision is set to alter the political equation in the State. The impact of the decision would not remain confined to the State only, but the ripples could well be felt in New Delhi as well. Bharatia Janata Party (BJP) president, Rajnath Singh has threatened that if the land is not transferred to Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) his party "will take the issue all across the country".
He has also called for President's rule in the State.
With PDP withdrawing its support from the coalition, the Congress-led coalition government has been reduced to minority (Though Mr Saifuddin Soz is not willing to accept it). National Conference (NC) has very wisely decided not to support Congress as it would have been tantamount to supporting the land deal, which the party does not want at this juncture. The land transfer issue has improved the prospects of National Conference in the forthcoming assembly elections, and the party would not leave any stone unturned in order to cash in on it as much as possible.
On the other hand, PDP cannot wash its hands so easily after all the State forest department was headed by a minister who belongs to PDP, and how is it possible that the party didn't got an inkling about the land transfer. PDP president Mehbooba Mufti has said that she had no information about the land transfer issue and that she came to know about it in a newspaper. How embarrassing? Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad has revealed catagorically that the cabinet approved the diversion of land to SASB only after clearance from the forest minister and the deputy chief minister. ...And do i need to tell you that both of them are the top notch leaders of PDP? PDP knew it well and, in fact, it was a unanimous decision taken by the cabinet. Actually, PDP had not anticipated such public outcry and when situation got bad to worse, the party in order to safeguard its political constituency in Kashmir was forced to take a u-turn. PDP's change of guard can well be termed as a classical example of political opportunism. The party's move has left many questions unanswered. Fingers are being raised at the conduct of the forest minister who reportedly signed the controversial land diversion order, and at the deputy chief minister who cleared the order. PDP leadership has not come out with convincing arguments which can justify the controversial role of the forest minister and the deputy chief minister in this regard and thereby vindicate their stand.
Owing to the land diversion issue, the Congress party could face severe consequences in the forthcoming assemby elections, particularly in Jammu. In 2002 the party managed to conquer 15 constituencies in Jammu region, bettering its 1996 performance when the party could only win four seats. With BJP and other Saffron brigades giving the issue of land diversion a religious tinge, Congress stands very little chance to fare well in the polls in Jammu. By deciding to divert 800 kanals of forest land to SASB the party has already earned the wrath of Muslims, and now by revoking the order it has infuriated Hindus as well. Jammu region has always been a stronghold of Congress, but this time around history may not repeat itself. Congress is set to face a humiliating defeat in Jammu, or to be more liberal, the party would not get even half of the seats it got in 2002. The party's prospects in the Valley, as always, look abysmal. It seems the stage is set for a repeat of 1977 when the party failed to win even a single seat in the Valley. Congress' loss could well be NC's gain, at least in Jammu.
Historically, the Muslim votes in Jammu have either gone to NC or Congress, but with Muslims having been enraged by land diversion issue and subsequently BJP communalising the whole issue, NC stands a very good chance to woo the Muslim voters in Jammu.
The mood in the Valley is not different either.
No doubt PDP has pull out from the coalition, but it can not get away scot free. After the government revoked the land transfer order, PDP has started taking the credit of the decision. However, NC will not leave any stone unturned in order to expose the dubious role of PDP in the land transfer issue. Omar Abdullah said in a programme on NDTV, "PDP claims victory for the issue that was directly their creation." PDP will be under enormous pressure and attack from both Congress and NC during the forthcoming elections. Saifuddin Soz has castigated PDP leadership for withdrawing their support to coalition. "PDP decided to be part of problem rather than to be part of solution," the JKPCC chairman said.
Amid all the blame game, NC will try to score a point and add to its tally of 18 seats it got in 2002 in the Valley. The elections are not going to be easy though, but NC has drawn the first blood. As far PDP leadership is concerned they can not efford to part ways with Congress for too long. After all, they need Congress more than Congress needs them. So, it's can be regarded as a timely seperation. How long the seperation will last, only time will tell. Since Ghulam Nabi Azad won't be around for too long in the State, Mr Soz has a job in his hands: to revive the fortunes of Congress party in the State. This will be the biggest challenge of his entire career. Next few months are going to be full of sensation, suspence and lot of drama.
So, don't blink, else you are going to miss the action.
