Rural-urban divide in Kashmir: Clean sweep by NC in Srinagar

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Dec 28: Election results have sprung many a surprise. The verdict has revealed, among other things, an apparent divide between rural and urban Kashmir. The city populace has preferred to vote in favour of National Conference (NC) candidates.

The party has made a clean sweep of the eight constituencies in Srinagar. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on other hand made a clean sweep of Shopian and Pulwama districts winning all the six seats. The party managed to win six of the ten seats in Anantnag and Kulgam districts.

Srinagarites spearheaded the agitation during Amarnath land row. Their resentment against Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) over the controversial Amarnath land transfer seems to have got converted into votes in favour of NC.

Considered to be a separatist bastion, Srinagar recorded 20 per cent polling in the last leg of the staggered seven-phase assembly elections. In 2002 assembly elections, all the eight constituencies of Srinagar district witnessed less than 10 per cent of total voter turnout. Amirakadal (3.06%), Batmalloo (4%), Sonawar (9.96%), Habbakadal (3.21%), Khanyar (4.22%), Idgah (4.74%), Zadibal (4.78%), Hazratbal (7.21%).

Moreover, the heavy voter turnout in rural areas greatly sharpened the nascent rural-urban divide. In the rural areas, voters came out in large numbers to cast their votes, while a major chunk of urbanites boycotted the polls in response to the election boycott call given by separatists.

In a major setback to PDP, former finance minister and senior PDP leader, Tariq Hameed Qarra lost to NC political debutant Irfan Shah from Batamaloo assembly segment. Former chief minister and NC patron, Farooq Abdullah won from both the constituencies of Hazratbal and Sonawar.

Mubarak Gul (NC), Ali Muhammad Sagar retained Idgah and Khanyar seats, respectively. NC's Shameema Firdous won from Habbakadal assembly segment, while NC's another political debutante Peer Afaq Ahmad emerged victorious from Zadibal constituency. Amirakadal seat went to Naseer Ahmad Wani.

NC had bagged five seats from Srinagar in 2002 assembly elections, while two went to independents and one to Congress.

Former chief minister and PDP patron, Mufti Muhammad Sayeed was elected from Anantnag assembly segment. Mufti defeated NC provincial president Mehboob Beg Mufti's daughter and PDP president, Mehbooba Mufti emerged victorious from Wanchi.

NC, PDP hobnobbing with Cong

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Dec 27: After sensing that they may fall short of getting simple majority in the 87-member House, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and National Conference (NC) have started lobbying in New Delhi for Congress support. According to sources, NC and PDP high command met with many senior Congress leaders to garner the party support to cobble a coalition government. Both PDP and NC have powerful lobbies in the Congress high command.

The father-son duo of Farooq and Omar were in New Delhi on Friday, and they are believed to have met with the Congress high command to discuss possibilities of forming next coalition government in the state. It is widely believed that no party will be able to reach anywhere near the half way mark of 44 in the 87-member House. However, PDP and BJP may increase their seats in Kashmir and Jammu, respectively.

The Congress high command seems to be in a fix. However, it has kept all options open. The party sources maintain that "the party high command will decide about the possible alliance once the poll results are declared". Sources added that Congress high command was more concerned about the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. Majority of Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) leaders were not in favour of PDP-Congress alliance as they believed that such a move would hamper Congress' image in Jammu and the party may have to face the music in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.

Some PCC leaders maintain that NC would be a better bet for Congress than PDP. After the break up of PDP-Congress' 'marriage of inconvenience' over Amarnath land row, NC-Congress coalition looked well on cards, but the statement of external affairs minister, Pranab Mukherjee had taken political pundits by surprise. During his visit to Kashmir, Mukherjee at a press conference on Dec 16 had hinted at the post poll Cong-PDP alliance.

Highly placed sources in Congress revealed that former chief minister and senior Congress leader, Ghulam Nabi Azad was keen to form alliance with NC. After the land transfer fiasco consumed the Azad-led Congress government, he distanced himself from PDP leadership. It is widely believed that Azad shares a healthy relationship with NC patron. In 2002, Azad had reportedly preferred alliance with NC, but "he was reined in by Congress (I) president" that time. Earlier in August, New Delhi had convened a meeting with PDP patron, Mufti Sayeed to seek his support following the agreement between the state government and Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti (SAYSS) over Amarnath land row, which PDP had termed as "unilateral". The meeting, as expected, could not break any ice. After failing to get PDP support, the honchos in New Delhi then turned to NC bigwigs to seek their support, and the party did not disappoint them.

In September this year, Farooq and Omar had a one-hour long meeting with the Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh and external affairs minister, Pranab Mukherjee that sparked off speculations that the Congress high command and the Abdullahs may have entered into some kind of agreement. Congress, on the other hand, is also riding high on support of smaller parties like Ghulam Hassan Mir's Democratic Party Nationalist (DPN) and Hakeem Mohammad Yasin's Peoples Democratic Front (PDF).

The Congress and NC have forged alliance in the past, but every time the alliance has ended on a bitter note. On November 13, 1974 Sheikh Abdullah and Indira Gandhi signed the Kashmir Accord (Beg-Parthasarthy Accord). On February 25, 1975 Sheikh Abdullah took over as the chief minister with Congress' support, a day after NC leaders reiterated that "J&K's accession to India was final". The alliance, however, lasted only 2 years and 21 days. On 16 March, 1977 Congress withdrew support to NC and the next day assembly was dissolved and governor's rule imposed. On July 2, 1984 Ghulam Muhammad Shah toppled NC government with Congress' support, and became the chief minister. This further strained the relations between NC and Congress. Shah formed National Conference (Khalida), which was later (in May, 1985) renamed as Awami National Conference (ANC). However, on March 7, 1986 GM Shah was dismissed and once again Governor's rule was imposed. On November 7, 1986 the two estranged parties again came together and formed a coalition government following Rajiv-Farooq accord. In 1977 and 1983 elections the main contest was between Congress and NC, but in 1987 assembly elections, both the parties had forged an alliance and were fighting on the same side. On March 25, 1987 NC-Congress coalition government was formed.

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2008 polls carve a niche - low violence, more candidates, heavy turnout and anti-poll protests

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Dec 22: The 2008 assembly elections will be remembered for a host of reasons. Post 1996, it is the first election which has so far passed off peacefully, without any major untoward incident having taken place. In wake of the election boycott call given by the separatists, the voter turnout, particularly in the conflict-ridden valley of Kashmir, has been beyond expectations.

Three months ago no one would have thought in the wildest of dreams that the elections would attract so much enthusiasm. However, before jumping to conclusion, there are other aspects that cannot be brushed aside. Even those who braved relentless weather and kept waiting in long queues for hours together outside polling stations, reiterated that elections were for development and "Azaadi (freedom) runs through their veins".


The heavy turnout in six phases has taken all and sundry by surprise. Over 1,354 candidates, including 468 independent candidates and 67 women contestants threw their hat in the election ring for the 87-member House.

As many as 1,354 candidates, including 78 from Congress, 85 from National Conference (NC), 64 from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and 78 from People's Democratic Party (PDP) are in the fray. Total assets declared by the candidates in their affidavits filed before the respective returning officers, sum up to Rs 7,769,012,944. NC and PDP candidates are richer than their counterparts in BJP and Congress. Total assets of NC and PDP candidates amount to Rs 1,327,543,175 and Rs 1,612,462,702, respectively.

The average asset of a single PDP candidate is Rs 433, 815, as compared to the NC candidates at Rs 18,185,523. The Congress candidates at Rs 10,534,108 and BJP candidate with Rs 8,739,974 lag far behind.

NC, however, has more crorepati candidates (33), followed by PDP (18), Congress (17), and BJP (8). There are 322 total candidates with no declared assets.

Former minister for finance and senior PDP leader, Tariq Hameed Qarra is the richest candidate in the fray with total assets amounting to Rs 828,861,045, followed by J&K Awami National Conference (JKANC) candidate for Batamaloo assembly segment, Javed Mustafa Ashai (Rs 340,252,000), senior PDP vice-president and the party candidate from Pattan assembly segment, Moulvi Iftikhar Hussain Ansari (Rs 214,095,000), Tariq Qarra's wife and PDP candidate from Idgah assembly segment, Asifa Tariq Qarra (Rs 142,131,045), independent candidate from Reasi assembly segment, Meenakshi Sharma (Rs 123,321,000), BJP candidate from Reasi assembly segment, Baldev Raj (Rs 113,100,000), NC candidate from Homeshalibugh assembly segment, Abdul Majeed (Rs 111,915,600), Congress candidate from Amirakadal assembly segment, Ahmreen Badar (Rs 111,000,000), former chief minister, NC patron and the party candidate from Hazratbal assembly segment, Farooq Abdullah (Rs 97,791,139), and JKDPN candidate from Habbakadal assembly segment, Jayant Kumar Shakdar (Rs 92,240,000).
PDP is riding high on young shoulders, with as many as 22 candidates below 35 years, in the fray. NC with18 candidates below 35 years, is at number two, followed by BJP and Congress with 15 each.

The 2008 assembly election has witnessed unprecedented women participation - not only as electors, but as candidates too - in the polls.

The number of women candidates in 2002 assembly elections was 29. In 2008, the number has doubled. In 1972, four women candidates were elected to the state legislature, which still remains a highest figure for women legislators in the state. The record, however, is likely to change this time. The fate of as many as 67 female contestants would be decided on December 28, 2008. PDP has shown a lot of trust on women candidates. The party fielded nine women contestants, followed by BJP (five), Congress (four), and NC (two). Will the fair sex fair well for the parties in polls is yet to be seen.

Like Bihar, J&K also has its share of candidates with criminal charges. There are as many as 27 candidates with criminal charges, including five from NC, four PDP, two BJP, and one of the Congress.

Ramban constituencies to witness keenly fought contests

M Ashraf Khanji & Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Dec 16: The two assembly segments of newly carved district of Ramban - Ramban and Banihal - will go to polls in the sixth round of ongoing assembly elections in the state tomorrow. Total number of registered voters in the district is 1, 47,883, comprising 77,285 male and 70,598 female voters.

Banihal:
As many as 24 candidates are trying their luck from Banihal assembly segment. The apparent division within Congress, National Conference (NC) and People's Democratic Party (PDP) over allotment of mandates is likely to give an edge to independent candidates.

An independent candidate, Maulvi Abdul Rashid is a strong candidate from this constituency. He has been elected four times from this assembly segment. Rashid successfully contested on NC ticket in 1977, 1983 and 1987. In 1996, he contested on Congress ticket and lost to NC's Mohammed Farooq Mir, but in 2002 elections Rashid, who then fought as independent candidate, avenged his defeat by emerging victorious against Mir (NC) by a margin of 6674 votes. After the PDP-Congress coalition government was formed in the state, Rashid went back to Congress camp. He was expecting the party mandate this time, but Congress preferred political debutant Vikar Rasool over Rashid.

Discrepancies over allotment of party tickets have led to infighting among major political parties here and that has added to the winning prospects of Rashid. The four-time MLA holds a considerable sway over a major chunk of voters and is likely to retain the seat. However, it may not be a cake walk for him. He may face a tough competition from Congress' Rasool. Rasool may possibly ride on the anti-incumbency factor against Rashid.

The constituency was represented by Mohammed Akhtar of NC in 1967. Hajira Begum of Congress was declared elected in 1972. Moulvi Abdul Rashid of NC won three successive terms in 1977, 1983 and 1987. Farooq Mir wrested the seat in 1996. Banihal constituency has a total number of 70,552 registered voters, including 37,053 male and 33,499 female voters.

Ramban:
In absence of any strong independent SC candidate, Ramban assembly segment - a reserved Scheduled Caste constituency - is set to witness an intense contest between NC and Congress. As many as 13 candidates are in the fray, including a woman Amrit Varsha of Samajwadi Party (SP).

Dr Chaman Lal of NC, who won the seat in 2002 defeating his nearest rival Ashok Kumar of Congress by a margin of 2,536 votes, is seeking second term from Ramban constituency. However, if the mood of the locals is anything to go by, Congress' Kumar could spring a surprise by avenging his defeat. BJP's candidate, Bali Bhagat is also in the race.

The constituency was represented by NC's Asadullah Mir NC in 1957 and 1962, while Hans Raj and Mohammed Akhter Nizami of Congress emerged victorious in 1967 and 1972 elections, respectively. Prem Nath of NC wrested the seat in 1977, while Jagdev Singh and Bharat Gandhi of the Congress won in 1983 and 1987 elections. In 1996 polls, Bali Bhagat of BJP was declared elected from this constituency.

However, according to locals, both Chaman and Kumar appear to be almost equally placed. It is believed that a very small margin might decide their fate. However, anti-incumbency against Chaman is likely to play a crucial role in the election.

Ramban assembly segment has 77,695 registered voters, comprising 40,525 male and 37,170 female voters.

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Uncomfortable Questions About Mumbai Attacks

SAS

Hassan Zainagiree's article - "Odyssey to Taj" (http://www.greaterkashmir.com/full_story.asp?Date=4_12_2008&ItemID=18&cat=11) published in Kashmir's widely circulated vernacular daily Greater Kashmir was a wonderful read.

There is more to Mumbai attacks than meets the eye. US President elect Barak Obama's repeated Kashmir statement had frustrated India to the hilt and the honchos at New Delhi were afraid that the US may end up favouring Pakistan. After less than a month of Obama statement, India has managed to turn the tide in her favour and win American support. Now, some newspaper headlines are suggesting that "Mumbai attacks may sharpen Obama's Kashmir focus". For India, it's a job well done!

The attack on Taj Mahal Hotel, Trident (Oberoi) and Nariman House have raised many a question. It's quite ironic that security personnel were unable to notice the terrorists who barged into the Taj hotel. Interestingly, the terrorists first identified and then killed two American spies who were staying in the 565-room Taj Mahal hotel. Curiously, both at Nariman House and Taj Mahal hotel, foreigners - particularly Americans and Israelis - were the prime targets. The killing of ATS Chief Hemant Karkaray too has raised uncomfortable questions. Hemant was probing the Malegaon blast and had exposed the nexus between Hindu terrorists, army officials and Sang Parivaar. There is a striking similarity between the killing of Hemant Karkaray and Delhi Police Special Cell officer Mohan Chand Sharma, who was killed during the Jamia Nagar encounter in September this year.

As Zainagiree writes that all the three police chiefs - Hemant, Vijay Salaskar and Ashoh Kamtay - killed in the "encounter" were "vigorously perusing Rajan Gang". They were "apprised on phone of terror attack and asked to reach the same place where they were pumped with bullets".

If voters stay away, migrants may make impact in Srinagar

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Dec 1: With a major chunk of voters having refrained from exercising their franchise in the previous two assembly elections in the conflict-ridden Kashmir valley - particularly in Srinagar district - votes of displaced Pandits of the valley, largely scattered across Jammu region and other parts of India, could hold a key to the outcome of the ongoing elections.

A good participation of Kashmiri Pandits in the electoral process could have a drastic impact on the outcome in many assembly segments of the valley. Srinagar district, which goes to polls in the seventh and last phase of elections, could feel the maximum ripples.

The entire Srinagar district has had a huge impact of election boycott calls in the past, and the trend is likely to persist this time also in the wake of Kashmir Coordination Committee's (KCC's) election boycott call. Post 1996, Srinagar district has always witnessed very insignificant turnout in the elections. All the eight constituencies of Srinagar district witnessed less than 10 per cent of total voter turnout in 2002 assembly elections. Amirakadal (3.06%), Batmalloo (4%), Sonawar (9.96%), Habbakadal (3.21%), Khanyar (4.22%), Idgah (4.74%), Zadibal (4.78%), Hazratbal (7.21%). Interestingly, the district accounts for 23,796 migrant votes, which could hold the key to the outcome.

However, participation of migrated KPs in the elections in the past had not been significant enough to turn the tide in their favour. But this time they all seem geared up to make some inroads. For the first time, more than two dozen candidates belonging to migrated Kashmiri Pandit community are trying their luck in the elections this time from their 'original' home constituencies. If the turnout in the valley, particularly in Srinagar district, remains as abysmal as in two previous assembly elections, some of them could easily throw a surprise.

Earlier in November, the Kashmiri Pandits formed a political party, Jammu Kashmir National United Front (JKNUF) to throw their hats into the election ring. According to sources, as many as 14 candidates of the party are contesting from different assembly constituencies across the state. JKNUF candidate, Rakesh Handoo, would contest against NC patron and the former chief minister, Dr Farooq Abdullah from Hazratbal. Besides the JKNUF, there are 18 other Kashmir Pandit candidates, most of them independent, in the fray.

According to figures provided by the state Chief Election Commission (CEC), there are a total number of 72,793 Kashmiri migrant voters who are largely concentrated in Jammu region, Delhi, Chandigarh and Bangalore. Habbakadal alone has a staggering 13,302 migrant votes, followed by Bijbehara (4003), Amirakadal (3058), Anantnag (2882), Batamaloo (2840), Kupwara (2731), Devsar (2581), Handwara (2528), Kokernag (2374), Kulgam (2284), and Hazratbal (1933).

Realising the significance of migrant electors, other political parties also have started to woo the migrant voters. BJP - which has never won a seat in Kashmir region - has given mandate to a Kashmiri Pandit, Hira Lal Chatta from Habbakadal assembly segment and is hopeful of breaking the jinx this time. Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Forum (JKPDF) has also decided to field a Kashmiri Pandit from Amirakadal assembly segment as the party candidate.

"Our party will field candidates from all the eight assembly constituencies in Srinagar," the PDF president, Hakeem Muhammad Yaseen told Kashmir Times, adding that the party would give mandate to a Kashmiri Pandit from Amirakadal assembly segment. According to sources, 10 Pandit candidates are in the fray from Habba Kadal assembly segment, which include Hira Lal Chatta (BJP), former legislator Raman Matoo (ind), K Madan (BSP), Sanjay Saraf (LJP), J K Shakdar (JKDP-N), and R K Koul (BSP-S). Two Pandit candidates - Shiban Dudha (PDF) and Prakshit Koul (BJP) - are contesting from Amirakadal assembly segment. Sonwar, Hazratbal, Islamabad and Sopur also have its share of Pandit candidates. Rakesh (JKNUF), Sanjay Kachroo (BJP), Vijay Chicken (JKNUF) and Rajender Handoo (independent) are contesting from Hazratbal, Sonwar, Sopur and Islamabad constituencies respectively.

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