Jammu, Nov 25: Budgam assembly segment will go to polls on December 7. As many as 16
candidates, including two former ministers and a legislator, are in the fray, but the main fight is between three candidates. The constituency has been a traditional stronghold of National Conference (NC) with a 100 per cent winning record. NC, which kick-started its poll campaign from Budgam assembly segment on October 23, has again given mandate to its blue-eyed-boy and former MLA Aga Syed Ruhullah, who looks very confident of securing "over 25000 votes" this time.However, it may not be a cake-walk for Ruhullah, who successfully contested in 2002 on NC ticket and benefited from a considerable sympathy vote after his father Aga Syed Mehdi – a Congress leader – was killed in a powerful IED blast near Magam on Srinagar-Gulmarg road on November 4, 2000.
In 2002, Ruhullah defeated another scion of prominent Aga family of Budgam and former minister Aga Syed Mehmood by a margin of 6645 votes. Mehmood, who had twice served as minister in Farooq's cabinet, had contested as an independent candidate after the party refused to give him mandate from his home constituency Budgam.
Mehmood, who is again contesting independently from Budgam, enjoys the support of Abid Ansari, who is a brother of People's Democratic Party (PDP) senior vice president Molvi Iftikhar Ansari. Ansaris hold a considerable sway over a chunk of Shia voters in Budgam constituency, which has about 27,000 Shia votes. Mehmood-Ansari alliance is likely to improve the winning prospects of Mehmood this time. However, Ruhullah has other thoughts for obvious reasons.
"I don't think it (Aga-Ansari alliance) is going to affect my prospect," he told Kashmir Times. "If the turnout is good, I am confident of getting 50 to 60 per cent of the total votes."
Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Forum chairman and former minister Hakeem Muhammad Yaseen is also trying his luck from Budgam assembly segment. Both Hakeem and Mehmood may possibly ride on the anti-incumbency against Ruhullah.
Like Ruhullah, Hakeem too seems very optimistic about winning the seat.
"People of Budgam constituency requested me to contest election from Budgam segment," he told Kashmir Times. "Both Shias and Sunnis are favouring me and I am sure of winning."
Ruhullah is likely to get bulk of votes from Budgam proper, Karipora, Paller, Sundergund, Palpora, Nor, Wahpora, Razwen, Jahama, and Garind, while Mehmood is likely to get maximum votes from Shoolipora, Nasrullahpora, Durbal and Shareefabad.
Both Mehmood and Ruhullah may have to share votes in Bemina, Ichgam, Mehwara, Labertal, Zoorigund and Khanpur.
Hakeem has an edge in Yechikoot, Humhama, Sheikh pora, Narkara, and Gudsoth, while PDP's M Kamal Malik could get a major chunk of votes from Ompora and Soibugh.
The Kashmir Coordination Committee (KCC) election boycott call, however, is likely to have an impact in the home village of United Jehad Council (UJC) supremo Syed Salauddin - Soibugh, Humhama, Ompora, and Nasrullahpora.
Budgam assembly segment has a total of 87,028 registered voters, which include 44,844 male and 42,184 female voters. In 2002, 22,531 (33.40%) votes out of 67,445 votes were polled. The total polling stations to be set up in the constituency this time is 93, as compared to 63 in 2002 elections.
Budgam constituency has been a traditional stronghold of NC and the party has never lost any election from Budgam. NC president has many a time himself described it as "NC's forte". Aga Syed Ali Shah Safvi of NC won the seat from 1952 to 1967. In 1967 assembly elections, Hakeem Syed Mehdi of NC defeated then chief ministerial candidate Ghulam Muhammad Sadiq of Congress by a margin of over 40 per cent votes. NC did not contest 1972 elections and consequently the seat went to Ali Muhammad Mir of Congress who defeated Aga Syed Ali Shah who then fought as an independent candidate. That was the only time when a non-NC candidate managed to win the seat. Ghulam Hassan Geelani of NC represented the constituency from 1977 to 2002. In 2002, NC'S Aga Ruhullah secured 11,398 votes and defeated his nearest rival Aga Mehmood, an independent candidate, by a margin of 6645 votes. Mehmood polled 4,753 votes.
Candidates contesting from Budgam assembly segment include, Aga Syed Ruhullah mehdi (JKNC), Hakeem Muhammad Yaseen (Ind), Aga Syed Mehmood (Ind), M Kamal Malik (PDP), Mir Fayaz Rahat (Congress), Bashir Ahmad Najar (Ind), Syed Mujtaba (Ind), Abdul Ahad Sheikh (Ind), Abdul Gani Naseem (Ind), Ghulam Mohiuddin Mir (RJD), Ghulam Nabi Ganaie (ANC), Muhamad Ibrahim Khan (BSP), M Ashraf Azad Hajam (BJP), M Ashraf Ahangar (Ind), Zahoor Ahmad Badoo (Ind), and Nazir Ahmad Wani (Ind).
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