Will NC avenge 2002?

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Nov 22: The prestigious assembly segment of Ganderbal is going to polls tomorrow. All the political parties have done their home work. Now it's the time for people to decide. Ganderbal has developed a knack of springing surprises. Upto 2002 it was considered a stronghold of National Conference (NC) and a "safe haven" for Sheikh family, but in 2002 assembly elections the voters left all and sundry astonished when the scion of Sheikh family and then chief ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah lost to People's Democratic Party's (PDP's) candidate Qazi Muhammad Afzal.

Omar Abdullah is again contesting from Ganderbal, but will he be lucky second time is a million dollar question. It will not be a cakewalk for him for sure. NC has not left any stone unturned in order to woo the voters. Almost all the bigwigs of the party have campaigned for the party president. NC's only influential Shia leader Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, who holds considerable sway over a chunk of Shia voters in the constituency, also accompanied junior Abdullah many a time to garner support in his favour. It's a do or die situation for two-time member Parliament Omar who is yet to win an assembly election. Nonetheless, there is a possibility that Omar may ride on the anti-incumbency against Qazi Afzal.

Omar is facing stiff competition this time not from PDP's Qazi Afzal, but from Congress' Ishfaq Jabbar Sheikh. Ishfaq has some goodwill in the constituency and enjoys a considerable support of the electorate. Ishfaq is the son of Jabbar Sheikh who served as minister in Farooq's cabinet. To show his strength, sub-inspector-turned politician Ishfaq had organised a public rally at Beehama earlier this year which was attended by over 6000 persons including the supporters of NC senior leader Mian Altaf Ahmad. He had planned to contest from Ganderbal on NC ticket, but was denied mandate by the party high command. Consequently, he was roped in by Congress as a potential candidate against Omar.

To show down Omar, Ishfaq has played a political card that could go against the junior Abdullah. The contest between Omar and Ishfaq has become a contest between a local and outside candidate. To dent Omar's image, PDP, on the other hand, is asking NC president to "clear up" his links with Malegaon blast accused Swami Dayanand Pandey. Senior PDP leader and former minister Tariq Hameed Qarra was seen flashing the photograph of Omar with the Swami, at a press conference in Srinagar earlier this week.

The former minister and PDP senior leader Qazi Muhammad Afzal is seeking second term from Ganderbal, but if the public mood is anything to go by, Afzal could face voter's ire for his controversial role in the Amarnath land transfer deal.

NC is likely to get chunk of votes from its traditional stronghold belts of Sher Pathri, Dab, Alasteng and Waliwar, while as Congress has an edge in Lar, Wakura (hometown of senior Congress vice president and MLC Ali Muhammad Wakura) and Beehama. The Kashmir Coordination Committee (KCC) election boycott call is likely to have an impact in Jamat-i-Islami stronghold Saloora, Dudarhama and to some extent in Beehama.

There are 77,616 registered voters, which include 39,982 male and 37,634 female voters, in Ganderbal assembly segment. Around 79 polling stations have been setup in the constituency where 12 candidates are in the fray.

Out of eight elections held since 1962 NC has managed to won five of them. In 1962 and 1967 NC's Abdul Slam Aitu and Congress' MM Bhat respectively won uncontested. Muhammad Maqbool Bhat of Congress emerged victorious in 1972. Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah successfully contested from Ganderbal in 1977 and defeated his nearest rival Ali Muhammad Taria - an independent candidate - by a huge margin. Farooq Abdullah wrested the seat from 1983 to 2002. In 2002 assembly elections PDP's Qazi Afzal defeated Farooq's son and then chief ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah by a margin of over 12 per cent votes.

Meanwhile, Omar Abdullah today served a legal notice to Mehbooba Mufti and Tariq Hameed Qarra for "making false, incorrect and motivated allegations" against him. Both Mehbooba and Qarra had asked Omar to clear-up his links with Swami Dayanand. Omar in turn had maintained that Qarra was also present at the same function organized by the accused Dayanand. The NC president today sought an apology from the PDP leaders, failing which he threatened to file a suit for damages to the tune of Rs.1 crore.

http://www.kashmirtimes.com/