After 32 years, Ansari v/s Abdullah

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Apr 18: In the run-up to second phase of Lok Sabha (LS) polls, Kashmir is gearing up to witness an interesting contest between the state's two political stalwarts. After 32 years, senior vice-president Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and an influential Shia cleric, Moulvi Iftikhar Hussain Ansari is all set to take on another senior member of the famed Abdullah family.

Iftikhar filed his nomination papers today at DC office Srinagar, for prestigious Srinagar-Budgam Parliamentary constituency. He was accompanied by former chief minister and PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, and senior PDP leader, Tariq Hamid Qarra.

Iftikhar is up against former chief minister and National Conference (NC) president Farooq Abdullah, who will be contesting his third election in six months. Farooq filed his nomination papers yesterday.

Farooq and Iftikhar share few things in common, and that is what makes the contest between the two interesting. Both have fought one Lok Sabha (LS) election each, and both have a faithful vote bank.

Farooq was elected to parliament in 1980, uncontested.

In 1977 LS elections, Iftikhar had challenged then matriarch of the Abdullah family, Begum Akbar Jahan. After addressing a 40,000-strong election rally at "Gol Bagh" (at present day Assembly complex) in the heart of Srinagar city, political pundits started to pit Iftikhar, an independent candidate, as hot favourite to win the seat.

However, it was the Begum who had the last laugh. Out of around three lakh votes (69.12 per cent) polled in the constituency, the Begum got 67.73 per cent votes, and Iftikhar managed to secure around 87000, just 28.19 per cent of the total votes polled.

However, much water has flown down the Jhelum since March 1977. This time also the contest promises to be intense. Although the number of total registered voters has increased, but in the wake of election boycott call given by separatists, the voter turn out is unlikely to touch 40 per cent.

Moreover, Iftikhar - who over the years has developed penchant for switching loyalties - is a political leader of big stature today as compared to 1977. Starting with Janta Dal, then People's Conference (PC), Congress, National Conference (NC), and all the way to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), he has seen them all! He has also served as minister in Farooq's cabinet.

Iftikhar, who enjoyed full-on support of Shia electorate in 1977, can not rely much on divided Shia voters this time around.

Similarly, unlike 1977, widening Sher-Bakra cleavage will have a direct impact on NC's vote share.

"His (Iftikhar's) chances of winning are next to impossible," said a senior political analyst. "Iftikhar can only upset Farooq if there is mass election boycott and Shias vote for him."

Unlike 1977, Iftikhar is this time contesting on PDP ticket and is hopeful of riding on the party's vote bank. He may also ride on the anti-incumbency against sitting Member Parliament (MP) and chief minister, Omar Abdullah.

However, analysing the results of last Assembly election, Iftikhar's chances of winning seem very bleak. The NC candidates polled 1,64,416 votes in 15 assembly segments in Budgam-Srinagar-Ganderbal Lok Sabha seat, however, PDP was not far behind (1,20,460). NC will be enjoying support of its alliance partner, Congress, and that's what makes it a seemingly one-sided contest. NC and its allies had together polled a whopping 2,39,133 in 2008 assembly elections, leaving PDP far behind with only 1,18,673.