Will Srinagar be a cake-walk for NC?

Syed Ali Safvi

JAMMU, Apr 12: Srinagar-Budgam Lok Sabha (LS) seat will go to polls on May 7, 2009. The constituency has been a traditional stronghold of National Conference (NC) with a 100 per cent winning record.

The voter turnout particularly in the last three parliamentary elections has been abysmal. In 1998 the voter turnout was 30.16 per cent; in 1999 it slumped to 11.93 per cent. The turnout in 2004 LS elections was as low as 18.57, despite Indian media's seemingly ad nauseum claims that people were coming out enthusiastically to cast their votes.

The main contest is between NC and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The latter is not leaving any stone unturned in order to woo the voters. After much speculation, the party today formally announced the name of former minister, and senior vice-president, Moulvi Iftikhar Hussain Ansari as its candidate for Srinagar-Budgam constituency. The move is seemingly aimed at wooing the Shia votes in the constituency.

After former minister and senior Shia leader Aga Syed Mehmood rejoined PDP last week, the party is seriously banking on Shia vote in the constituency.

NC is also relying on its Shia leader and MLA Budgam, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, who holds a considerable sway in Shia belts in Budgam, Srinagar, and Ganderbal districts. However, unlike in 2004 LS elections, the supporters of Ruhullah seem less enthusiastic this time around. Ruhullah's disgruntled supporters are unhappy with the party high command for not accommodating him (Ruhullah) in the council of ministers.

NC has not yet announced its candidate for the constituency. According to the party sources former chief secretary-turned-politician, Sheikh Ghulam Rasool is the front runner for the ticket. However, there is an apparent infighting in the party over the nomination of Rasool. Sources close to the party revealed that on one hand Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah wants the party ticket for Rasool, and on the other hand NC president Farooq Abdullah and a bunch of NC leaders are opposing it. The other two contenders for the ticket are Mustafa Kamal, and Srinagar Municipality Corporation (SMC) Mayor and son of Minister for Rural Development Ali Mohammad Sagar, Salman Sagar.

Keeping the last assembly election as bench mark, the contest is likely to be a cake walk for NC. The NC polled 1,64,416 votes in 15 assembly segments in Budgam-Srinagar-Ganderbal Lok Sabha seat, as against PDP (1,20,460). NC will be enjoying support of Congress, and Peoples Democratic Front (PDF). Together they polled a whopping 2,39,133 in the last assembly elections. PDP lags 1,18,673 votes behind.

Moreover, Ghulam Qadir Pardesi's exit from PDP has only made matters worse for PDP. Pardesi had lost to Farooq Abdullah by a mere 94 votes in the last Assembly elections from Sonwar assembly segment.

Keeping in view all aspects, the PDP candidate seems unlikely to even give a tough fight to NC, let alone win.